Fully Autonomous Vehicles

"They shouldn't allow humans to drive!"

(Image Credit: Space machine, 2015)

(Source: Center for Automotive Research, 2013 [1])

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Editor and Author:

Ing. Michael Nikowitz, MSc.

Fernkorngasse 54/1/310

1100 Vienna, Austria

michael.nikowitz@gmx.at

Illustration, Layout and Design:

Image courtesy of Creative Quantum Jumps by Michael Nikowitz www.creativequantumjumps.com

Copyright © Nikowitz 2015

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction or microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaption, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.

The author and the editor are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the author nor the editor give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.

About the author

Michael Nikowitz was born in Vienna (Austria), in 1986.

From an early age, he was interested in the field of technique.

After he finished secondary technical school with a focus on mechatronics and automation, he graduated from the University of Applied Sciences (Technikum Wien) in 2011, with a Master of Science in Engineering in the field of Mechatronics and Robotics.

After working in the field of industrial and mobile robots, he changed his fields of interest to mechatronic concepts and technical optical systems.

After several years of working as a laser engineer in the field of ultrashort pulse laser systems, he finally moved to the field of advanced propulsion systems of various vehicles driven by electrified drive trains.

Currently he is working there as scientific advisor for a strategic platform of the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology.

He also works for the International Energy Agency, where he represents Austria as a National Delegate and works as an Operating Agent for an international task called “System Optimization and Vehicle Integration of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles”.

Always interested in the field of robotics, he remains active in the advancement of automation and robotics by working for the association for promotion of automation and robotics as vice president. Happily, this position allows him to integrate his knowledge of robots and self-driving vehicles.

Preface

Current trends in energy supply and use are unsustainable, whether in terms of environment, economy or society. We have to change the path that we are now on. We must reduce greenhouse gas emissions and we have to improve energy efficiency, by using low-carbon energy technologies.

In the search for a sustainable solution to these challenges, electrical energy may be the key to success, particularly when it comes to mobility. Vehicles driven by an electrified powertrain can significantly contribute to the protection of the environment.

Right now, the automotive industry is facing two major trends: the electrification of the drive train and autonomous driving. These trends are not independent thanks to the fact that the electrified power train eases the implementation of driverless vehicles.

Has there ever been a finer creation that the automobile?

Since the invention of the modern car in 1886 by Karl Benz, it has been bringing pleasure to every one of us. For nearly 130 years, the automotive industry has been a force for innovation and economic growth.

But is it still in tune?

Now, in the 21st century, the pace of innovation is speeding up and the automotive sector is facing a new kind of technological revolution as it approaches “fully autonomous vehicles”.

Self-driving vehicles clearly impact the experience of passengers, but perhaps more importantly this technology will have an impact on several sectors of our society and on our whole ecosystem.

Sooner or later, it may become possible for automobiles to drive autonomously and successfully to their destinations.

How will this technology change the relationship between people and their automobiles? How will self-driving vehicles change the transportation sector and our freedom of mobility as we know it today? If autonomous cars succeed, how will they change our world? Could autonomous cars replace public transportation?

This book has a focus on autonomous driving from various perspectives; it looks at what an autonomous car is and how it may come to be commonplace on our roads, as well as the factors that could prevent its development and adoption.

It also reviews the potential benefits of these vehicles and how they might impact different aspects of our lives. The book also examines the challenges and hurdles that face driverless vehicles and considers some solutions to these obstacles to enable successful market penetration.

Aside from the social and economic consequences of autonomous vehicles, this book also emphasizes the technical point of view. It describes the technological inventions and engineering concepts which are necessary to operate self-driving vehicles.

In summary, this book provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art in driverless cars and makes some projections for the future.

Autonomous cars no longer exist merely in the minds of children and science fiction writers. They are real and will be on roads sooner than you think. Michael Nikowitz

Contents

1 Introduction. 8

1.1 Definition of (fully) autonomous vehicles. 8

1.2 What does a “driverless” vehicle look like?. 9

1.3 Why are autonomous vehicles important now?. 15

2 Benefits and societal impacts of autonomous driving. 22

2.1 The promises of autonomous driving. 22

2.2 The impacts of autonomous driving. 30

3 Barriers and challenges of autonomous driving. 36

3.1 The loss of joy. 36

3.2 Increases in unemployment 37

3.3 Data protection and privacy. 37

3.4 Costs of autonomous vehicles. 38

3.5 Market introduction and transit period. 40

3.6 Legislation and liability. 41

3.7 The 2x2 dimension of autonomous driving. 47

4 A cost/ benefit analysis of autonomous driving. 50

5 From ADAS to fully autonomous driving. 51

5.1 ADAS-Systems - an overview.. 54

5.2 Accident avoidance through ADAS. 55

5.3 ADAS - a fast growing industry. 57

5.4 The different steps towards self-driving vehicles. 63

6 Technical requirements for autonomous driving. 69

7 Examples of autonomous vehicles. 87

7.1 Google’s self-driving cars - first generation. 89

7.2 Google’s next generation of self-driving cars. 93

8 Availability of autonomous vehicles and future outlook. 98

8.1 Current status. 98

8.2 When to expect (fully) autonomous driving?. 102

9 The future of the driverless-automotive industry. 110

10 Conclusion. 119

11 Appendix. 122

11.1 List of References. 122

11.2 List of Figures. 131

11.3 Abbreviations and Nomenclature. 134

1 Introduction

Visions of unmanned and autonomous machines and vehicles are not new. Experiments with unmanned aircrafts began in the First World War and a radio controlled car was demonstrated in the streets of New York in 1925 [2].

Autonomous vehicles have long been predicted in science fiction and discussed in popular science media.

Recently, major corporations have announced plans to begin selling fully autonomous vehicles in the near future.

Driverless vehicles are no longer restricted to the realm of science fiction - they are in development and will be operating on our roads sooner than many would imagine.

This section defines the terms “autonomous”, “self-driving”, and “robotic” as they refer to vehicles and provides examples of each. Further, this section points out why these vehicles are so popular nowadays and why they might become indispensable for our society.

1.1 Definition of (fully) autonomous vehicles

Right now, there exists no consensus definition of autonomous vehicles. The most typical designations are: “driverless”, “(fully) autonomous”, “self-driving” or “robotic”. Currently, the descriptions “driverless” or “fully autonomous” vehicles are representing the most common phrases by containing: a vehicle (car) with total autonomy.

As there is no consensus definition, two working definitions will be used here:

• Definition 1: a vehicle that is designed to travel between destinations without a human operator.

• Definition 2: a vehicle which is able to perceive its environment, decide autonomously which route to take to its destination, and conduct itself along the route it selects.

Certain milestones of autonomy must be achieved before a vehicle can be considered fully autonomous (a detailed description is mentioned in chapter 5).

For a common understanding, the terms “autonomous” and “driverless” vehicles will be used interchangeably in this report.

1.2 What does a “driverless” vehicle look like?

The concept of a driverless vehicle is not totally new.

Even in the year 1957 people thought about what future cars would look like. Fig 1 shows a common portrayal. Here we see a family of four playing a board game while their futuristic electric car drives itself. As this advert from 1957 suggests, the aspiration for self-driving cars is one that has been held for at least half of a century. The text that accompanied the original read: “ELECTRICITY MAY BE THE DRIVER. One day your car may speed along an electric super-highway, its speed and steering automatically controlled by electronic devices embedded in the road. Highways will be made safe by electricity! No traffic jams…no collisions…no driver fatigue.”

Fig 1: Imagination of a self-driving car from 1957 [3]

However, when today people are asked what they imagine driverless vehicles to be like, their responses may differ depending on their generation and their knowledge of current driverless car engineering. The younger and elderly generation imagine “robotic vehicles” when they think about driverless vehicles. As this description consists of the two terms “robotic” and “vehicle”, many adult (and especially elderly) people envision a robot driving a conventional car. An illustration is shown in Fig 2. This figure shows a robot trying to drive a vehicle during the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA’s) Robotic Challenge.

This challenge is a competition between teams of robot and software engineers who are trying to develop robots capable of assisting humans in responding to natural and man-made disasters. It was designed to be extremely difficult. Participating teams, representing some of the most advanced robotics research and development organizations in the world, collaborate and innovate on a very short timeline to develop the hardware, software, sensors, and human-machine control interfaces that will enable their robots to complete a series of challenge tasks selected by DARPA for their relevance to disaster response [4].

While the elderly generation imagines a robot (more or less a humanoid one) driving a conventional car, the younger generation thinks about a robot that can transform itself into a conventional car. This conceptualization might be primarily informed by popular movies like “The Transformers”, as it can be seen in Fig 3. At least from today’s point of view, we are far away from such a technology and it might be questionable if we will ever develop such a technology.

Fig 2: What people have in mind when they think about “robotic cars"- a car driven by a robot during the "DARPA"- challenge [5]

Fig 3: A robot that can transform itself into a car [5]

Today’s autonomous cars - or “robotic vehicles”- neither consist of a humanoid robot driving a vehicle, nor a robot transforming itself into a vehicle. Rather, it looks more or less like a conventional vehicle and consists of an array of sensors, actuators, computers, power electronics and communication tools. That’s the reason why the term “robotic vehicle” is not typically applied to contemporary autonomous vehicles. On the one hand it is obvious that these vehicles look and ride like conventional ones, but on the other hand people feel uneasy when they think about robots. Who wants to have a creepy ride?

It’s the same reason why unmanned public transport systems (i.e. subways) are also not called “robotic subways”.

Instead of using the term “robotic”, they are mostly named as "autonomous".

Currently, nearly every car manufacturer is working hard on the development and implementation of such vehicles. At the moment they can be identified by their sensors, which are necessary and mostly placed on the top of the vehicle. But even this recognition feature will disappear within the coming years.

Right now, one of the most popular autonomous vehicles are the driverless cars from Google, which are showed in Fig 4 and Fig 5.

Fig 4: Google's self-driving car (newest generation) [6]

Fig 5: Google's self-driving car (earlier generation) [7]

So, how far away are we today from the visions from the early 1950’s (shown in Fig 1)?

It seems like we are not that far away!

So don’t worry if you see a vehicle coming down the street with nobody sitting inside. It might be a driverless one!

1.3 Why are autonomous vehicles important now?

Much like electric vehicles (EVs), autonomous vehicles may seem like a very recent initiative but were first developed years ago. The idea of driverless cars already existed several decades ago (as described in the previous chapter).

Experiments have been conducted on automating cars since at least the 1920s [8]. Fig 6 shows a selection of the history of autonomous cars.

Fig 6: History of developments of autonomous vehicles

Today, every major commercial automaker is engaged in research in this area. The introduction of fully autonomous vehicles to the general market is being predicted to occur within five to 20 years.

In 1961, we predicted that cars would be directed by a punched tape so you could sleep behind the wheel (compare Fig 7). And in 1967, we anticipated you could twirl a dial on a car’s dashboard, set it to your destination, and then sit back to read the morning paper on the way to work. But maybe this time it’s for real (Popular Science, 2015 [9]).

Fig 7: The Urbmobile - From the Popular Science archives [9]

What’s the differences between earlier notions, like in the early 50’s, and today? Why should they be available now but were not in earlier days?

Nowadays, the technology appears close to commercial introduction and maturity. This stands in contrast to earlier decades in part because global megatrends have huge influences on our mobility and on our vehicle concepts.

These global megatrends include: global environmental stress, globalization, urbanization and megacities, demographic change and the contemporary digital lifestyle.

Today, there are around 1 billion automobiles in use worldwide. This large number of vehicles has caused and continues to cause a series of major issues in our society, like greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, oil depletion, energy insecurity and population growth.

The focus of interest has shifted towards efficient and fast transport in urban areas - individual transport will still remain in a multi-modal transport scenario.

Further, the development of the world’s population and urbanization is playing a major role, as there will be a strong shift towards urban population until the year 2050, according to several reports from the United Nations. This development is visualized in Fig 8, which shows the development of the urban and rural population of the world from 1950 through 2050 projections. This draft highlights the trend to move in big cities - a trend, which is still unbroken! In 1800, only about 3% of the world’s population lived in urban areas. Today nearly 54% of the world’s population is located in urban areas. By 2025, there will be 29 megacities (cities that have a population over 10 million people), most of them in developing countries. By 2050, over 70% of the world’s population will live in big cities.

Fig 8: Development of urban vs. rural population worldwide [10]

Fig 9 demonstrates the influence of the demographic change on the mobility of the future. The trend towards urbanization influences the ability to support people to get hassle-free from A to B. Additionally demographic change has a massive impact on the need for zero accidents, as the safe mobility of elderly people has to be managed. Efficient and zero-impact transportation will be one of the key challenges of our society.

Fig 9: Global megatrends strongly influence our future

These facts have huge consequences for our automobile manufacturing industry in general, but city vehicles will get influenced most by increasing regulations that will continue to require them to perform "better" than today!

Future vehicles need to be able to meet the regulatory requirements, mentioned above. Thus, they need to offer the following characteristics: connectivity, efficiency, zero impact on the environment, safety, partly/fully autonomous driving (see Fig 10).

Fig 10: Major trends will impact the future of the automobile

Worldwide industry and government are forced to consider alternative and sustainable solutions for transportation.

Vehicles driven by alternative drive trains offer unique advantages concerning energy efficiency, emissions reductions, and reduced petroleum use. Thus, they have become a research focus around the world. Decarbonizing transport is proving to be one of the largest research and development projects of the early 21^st century. Low-carbon technologies are therefore rapidly advancing, with petrol and diesel hybrids (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV), battery electric (BEV), and hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) being developed by nearly every major manufacturer.

A BEV is an EV that utilizes chemical energy stored in rechargeable battery packs. EVs use electric motors instead of, or in addition to, internal combustion engines (ICE). Vehicles using both electric motors and ICEs are called HEVs and are usually not considered pure BEVs. HEVs with batteries that can be charged and used without their ICE are called PHEVs and are pure BEVs while they are not burning fuel. FCEVs use hydrogen gas to power an electric motor (Dictionary of Environmental Science and Technology [11]).

All of the global megatrends mentioned above and their resulting requirements lead to two major trends in the car manufacturing industry:

• electrification of the drive train and

• fully automated (autonomous) driving.

The electrification of the drive train simplifies the introduction of autonomous vehicles. This was not the case in the early 50’s, as the internal combustion engine (ICE) was the dominating propulsion force and progress on EVs haven’t been available in that dimension which it is today.

The IEA [12] reports that there were approximately 700,000 BEVs and PHEVs on the streets (May 1^st, 2015). That number is expected to reach the 1 million mark by the end of 2015. There are predictions that the EV market will reach 8% of total car sales by 2020 (2.5M BEVs, 3.1M PHEVs and 6.5M HEVs).

Thanks to the implementation of xEVs, autonomous driving is becoming more realistic than ever.